模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
81¢
Yes is priced near 81%, but the recent 18-point daily and 32-point weekly surge appears momentum-driven and leaves limited margin for uncertainty around future inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Estimated probability is about 75%; reassess if new macro data materially changes the expected policy path.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Sustained pricing above 85% · A renewed inflation acceleration · Weakening labor-market data
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-6% 置信度
62%
Yes is priced near 81%, but the recent 18-point daily and 32-point weekly surge appears momentum-driven and leaves limited margin for uncertainty around future inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Estimated probability is about 75%; reassess if new macro data materially changes the expected policy path.