Yes ↓ -0% 2026/9/17 18:01:28
Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value, but the edge is small and uncertain because the resolution depends on future shipping data and possible disruption events.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -0%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 3.7¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:01:28
即時最佳賣價 3.5¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:48:18
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price has fallen sharply across the 1-day and 1-week windows, while the event remains low base-rate and has substantial time to resolve. The model estimates a slightly lower probability than the 3.8% market price, though geopolitical developments and data revisions remain key uncertainties.
觀察觸發點
- New shipping disruption in the Bab el-Mandeb
- IMF PortWatch data revision
- Yes price moves materially below 3%
為何仍需確認
The Yes price has fallen sharply across the 1-day and 1-week windows, while the event remains low base-rate and has substantial time to resolve. The model estimates a slightly lower probability than the 3.8% market price, though geopolitical developments and data revisions remain key uncertainties.
重新評估條件
New shipping disruption in the Bab el-Mandeb · IMF PortWatch data revision · Yes price moves materially below 3%
執行約束
價格 3.5¢ · 價差 0.1 pts · 流動性 $129,462。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:48:18
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
3.5¢24h 成交量 ?
$109,478流動性 ?
$129,462未平倉量 ?
$1,338,697價差 ?
0.1¢深度不平衡 ?
24.6%動量 ?
4.5%波動率 ?
3.3%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 動量上行
- 買盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
- 波動過大
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，正值代表上行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，正值代表買盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
- 波動過大時降級為觀望，避免噪音。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
3.4¢ 148
3.3¢ 1,996.53
3.2¢ 2,850
3.1¢ 3,169.66
3¢ 2,463.62
賣盤
3.5¢ 849.51
3.6¢ 1,100
3.7¢ 2,250
3.8¢ 891.02
3.9¢ 1,345.58
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:23:15 3.35¢
2026/9/17 20:25:17 3.35¢
2026/9/17 20:27:14 3.35¢
2026/9/17 20:29:20 3.35¢
2026/9/17 20:31:14 3.35¢
2026/9/17 20:33:10 3.35¢
2026/9/17 20:35:15 3.45¢
2026/9/17 20:37:14 3.45¢
2026/9/17 20:39:15 3.45¢
2026/9/17 20:41:29 3.45¢
2026/9/17 20:43:14 3.45¢
2026/9/17 20:44:14 3.45¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↓ -1% 2026/9/17 12:01:58
Yes appears slightly overvalued relative to the base-rate and recent downward repricing, though sparse event data and a long horizon leave meaningful uncertainty.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:01:59
The market already prices an extremely low probability for closure, while recent momentum supports that view.
Yes ↓ -1% 2026/9/17 00:04:17
The primary outcome appears modestly above estimated fair value, with bearish short- and medium-term momentum. Reassess if transit calls approach the threshold or credible disruption evidence emerges.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/16 18:02:48
Market pricing appears broadly consistent with the limited available evidence.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/17 19:06:06
$21,000 88¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 12:58:01
$14,000 78.99¢