Yes ↑ +6% 2026/9/18 06:03:22
The model sees a modest positive divergence for Yes versus the market price, but confidence is limited by the agreement's strict resolution criteria and geopolitical unpredictability.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
觀察觸發點執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +6%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 7¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/18 06:03:22
即時最佳賣價 8¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/18 09:23:58
模型 OpenAI
The 2026 deadline leaves substantial time for diplomatic pressure, battlefield shifts, or negotiated pauses to produce a qualifying agreement, making the 7–8% market range appear somewhat low. The strict requirement for a mutually announced general ceasefire remains a major uncertainty.
觀察觸發點
- Official Russia-Ukraine negotiations
- Mutually announced ceasefire terms
- Major battlefield escalation
為何仍需確認
The 2026 deadline leaves substantial time for diplomatic pressure, battlefield shifts, or negotiated pauses to produce a qualifying agreement, making the 7–8% market range appear somewhat low. The strict requirement for a mutually announced general ceasefire remains a major uncertainty.
重新評估條件
Official Russia-Ukraine negotiations · Mutually announced ceasefire terms · Major battlefield escalation
執行約束
價格 8¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $87,462。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/18 09:23:58
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
8¢24h 成交量 ?
$2,323流動性 ?
$87,462未平倉量 ?
$643,539價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
57.2%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.0%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
7¢ 1,293.78
6¢ 18,023.47
5¢ 4,353.89
4¢ 8,320.26
3¢ 24,139.16
賣盤
8¢ 296.45
9¢ 8,171.87
10¢ 2,194.9
11¢ 2,881.79
12¢ 1,747.59
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/18 09:02:14 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:04:12 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:06:09 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:08:13 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:10:13 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:12:13 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:14:13 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:16:29 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:18:13 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:20:13 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:22:12 7.5¢
2026/9/18 09:23:12 7.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/18 00:03:23
The primary outcome appears modestly above the displayed market probability, but the estimate is highly uncertain and recent momentum is bearish.
Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 18:03:38
The model assigns Yes a slightly higher probability than the 8% market price, but evidence is limited and geopolitical uncertainty is extreme.
Yes ↑ +3% 2026/9/17 12:04:15
Yes appears modestly above fair value at current pricing, though the estimate is highly uncertain and sensitive to diplomatic developments and the exact agreement language.
Yes ↑ +5% 2026/9/17 06:04:13
The model sees a modest positive probability gap for Yes, supported by the long time horizon, but confidence is limited by strict resolution criteria and geopolitical unpredictability.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交目前 24h 快取中暫無相關大額成交。