Yes ↑ +4% 2026/9/5 00:05:07
Yes appears modestly below estimated fair value, but the recent rally and elevated volatility reduce conviction.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
買 Yes
模型傾向：看高執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +4%
置信度 55%
模型運行時價格 33¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/5 00:05:07
即時最佳賣價 34¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/5 01:37:33
模型 OpenAI
The market implies roughly 34% for a qualifying ceasefire, while the long remaining horizon and continued diplomatic incentives support a modestly higher estimate near 38%. Confidence is limited by the recent sharp, volatile repricing and the strict requirement for a mutually announced general pause.
觀察觸發點
- Official Russia-Ukraine negotiation announcements
- Credible reports of a general ceasefire framework
- Sustained price above 0.45
為何仍需確認
The market implies roughly 34% for a qualifying ceasefire, while the long remaining horizon and continued diplomatic incentives support a modestly higher estimate near 38%. Confidence is limited by the recent sharp, volatile repricing and the strict requirement for a mutually announced general pause.
重新評估條件
Official Russia-Ukraine negotiation announcements · Credible reports of a general ceasefire framework · Sustained price above 0.45
執行約束
價格 34¢ · 價差 2 pts · 流動性 $105,077。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/5 01:37:33
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
34¢24h 成交量 ?
$193,228流動性 ?
$105,077未平倉量 ?
$612,636價差 ?
2¢深度不平衡 ?
66.3%動量 ?
51.1%波動率 ?
4.9%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 動量上行
- 買盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
- 波動過大
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，正值代表上行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，正值代表買盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
- 波動過大時降級為觀望，避免噪音。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
33¢ 20
32¢ 3,884
31¢ 3,793.01
30¢ 3,514.65
29¢ 5,466.49
賣盤
35¢ 21.99
36¢ 113
37¢ 2,240
38¢ 384.07
39¢ 626
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/5 01:16:14 33¢
2026/9/5 01:18:14 33¢
2026/9/5 01:20:24 33¢
2026/9/5 01:22:10 33¢
2026/9/5 01:24:14 33¢
2026/9/5 01:26:17 33¢
2026/9/5 01:28:14 33¢
2026/9/5 01:30:12 33¢
2026/9/5 01:32:14 33¢
2026/9/5 01:34:14 33¢
2026/9/5 01:36:10 34¢
2026/9/5 01:37:15 34¢
預測歷史
完整歷史相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/4 21:23:55
$6,000 55¢
賣出 · Yes 2026/9/4 21:00:43
$6,679 47.42¢