模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
33¢
The market implies roughly 34% for a qualifying ceasefire, while the long remaining horizon and continued diplomatic incentives support a modestly higher estimate near 38%. Confidence is limited by the recent sharp, volatile repricing and the strict requirement for a mutually announced general pause.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Official Russia-Ukraine negotiation announcements · Credible reports of a general ceasefire framework · Sustained price above 0.45
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+4% 置信度
55%
The market implies roughly 34% for a qualifying ceasefire, while the long remaining horizon and continued diplomatic incentives support a modestly higher estimate near 38%. Confidence is limited by the recent sharp, volatile repricing and the strict requirement for a mutually announced general pause.