Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 18:00:30
Yes appears slightly below estimated fair value based on momentum and order-book support, but the edge is small and highly uncertain this far before expiry.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
資料缺口執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↑ +2%
置信度 43%
模型運行時價格 48¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:00:30
即時最佳賣價 50¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 20:48:58
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price is 0.48, while strong recent upward momentum and a heavily bid-skewed order book suggest a modestly higher probability near 0.50. However, the market is still far from the October 2026 decision and lacks fundamental rate-path information.
觀察觸發點
- Fed guidance turns more hawkish
- Inflation or labor data materially strengthens
- Yes price falls below 0.44
為何仍需確認
The Yes price is 0.48, while strong recent upward momentum and a heavily bid-skewed order book suggest a modestly higher probability near 0.50. However, the market is still far from the October 2026 decision and lacks fundamental rate-path information.
重新評估條件
Fed guidance turns more hawkish · Inflation or labor data materially strengthens · Yes price falls below 0.44
執行約束
價格 50¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $418,946。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 20:48:58
模型觀點
偏向上行最佳賣價 ?
50¢24h 成交量 ?
$319,098流動性 ?
$418,946未平倉量 ?
$1,623,905價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
54.7%動量 ?
6.5%波動率 ?
0.3%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 動量上行
- 買盤深度占優
- 價差不大（<=2¢）
規則說明
- 動量 = 選定區間內的價格變化，正值代表上行。
- 深度不平衡比較買賣盤總量，正值代表買盤占優。
- 價差 = 最佳賣價 - 最佳買價，越小越容易進出。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
49¢ 68,183.75
48¢ 191,357.95
47¢ 176,058.84
46¢ 14,015
45¢ 11,075
賣盤
50¢ 5,257
51¢ 15,621.41
52¢ 44,208.9
53¢ 41,469.28
54¢ 28,224
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 20:24:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:26:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:28:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:30:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:32:25 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:34:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:36:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:38:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:40:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:42:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:44:12 49.5¢
2026/9/17 20:45:13 49.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 12:00:44
The primary outcome appears slightly above estimated fair value after a rapid repricing, but the edge is small and uncertainty remains high.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 06:00:55
Price momentum and order-book imbalance conflict with the recent short-term pullback, leaving no clear divergence from fair value.
Yes → +1% 2026/9/17 00:00:59
Pricing appears broadly efficient after a rapid repricing toward 45%.
Yes ↓ -3% 2026/9/16 18:01:17
The primary outcome appears modestly above fair value, so the model classifies this as buy under the stated convention.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/17 19:12:13
$10,760 50.62¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 18:43:13
$11,500 50¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 18:27:45
$13,222 49¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 18:03:46
$10,433 48¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 17:59:18
$14,601 48¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 17:02:34
$9,290 47¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 14:06:45
$10,240 47¢
賣出 · Yes 2026/9/17 13:03:27
$5,927 46¢