Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/20 18:00:50
Yes appears modestly below fair value, but the estimated edge is small and uncertainty remains high because the resolution date is distant and geopolitical events can rapidly change probabilities.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看高
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -2%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 79¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/20 18:00:50
即時最佳賣價 80¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/20 20:44:53
模型 OpenAI
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.
觀察觸發點
- Reassess after confirmed US or Iranian military actions
- Reassess if Yes moves materially below 0.74 or above 0.83
- Monitor credible evidence of de-escalation or escalation
為何仍需確認
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.
重新評估條件
Reassess after confirmed US or Iranian military actions · Reassess if Yes moves materially below 0.74 or above 0.83 · Monitor credible evidence of de-escalation or escalation
執行約束
價格 80¢ · 價差 2 pts · 流動性 $109,512。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/20 20:44:53
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
80¢24h 成交量 ?
$191,875流動性 ?
$109,512未平倉量 ?
$556,861價差 ?
2¢深度不平衡 ?
77.0%動量 ?
-0.6%波動率 ?
0.6%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
78¢ 4,143.09
77¢ 2,308.14
76¢ 101,628.17
75¢ 573
74¢ 318.51
賣盤
80¢ 1,444.61
81¢ 4,691.27
82¢ 7,517.44
83¢ 446.39
84¢ 28.57
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/20 20:22:12 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:24:12 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:26:13 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:28:12 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:30:14 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:32:12 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:34:28 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:36:16 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:38:12 79.5¢
2026/9/20 20:40:10 79¢
2026/9/20 20:42:09 79¢
2026/9/20 20:44:13 79¢
預測歷史
完整歷史相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 2026/9/20 16:49:39
$11,679 85.77¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/20 16:49:04
$5,689 46.74¢