模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
79¢
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.
說明 edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Reassess after confirmed US or Iranian military actions · Reassess if Yes moves materially below 0.74 or above 0.83 · Monitor credible evidence of de-escalation or escalation
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-2% 置信度
58%
The Yes price is 0.79, while the model estimates roughly 0.77 probability. Recent one-day weakness and substantial event risk modestly favor a lower fair value, though deep liquidity and the long horizon limit conviction.