Yes → 0% 2026/9/18 00:02:03
Price action and orderbook support are mixed, leaving no clear mispricing.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
暫無方向
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
觀察
模型偏差 Yes → 0%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 45¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/18 00:02:03
即時最佳賣價 44¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/18 03:03:45
模型 OpenAI
The market prices Lula's victory near 45%, while recent trading is stable and weekly momentum is slightly negative. Stronger Yes bid depth provides support, but without fresh polling or event information there is no reliable divergence from the market-implied probability.
觀察觸發點
- New credible national polling
- Major coalition or eligibility news
- Sustained move beyond 0.40-0.50
為何暫不行動
The market prices Lula's victory near 45%, while recent trading is stable and weekly momentum is slightly negative. Stronger Yes bid depth provides support, but without fresh polling or event information there is no reliable divergence from the market-implied probability.
重新評估條件
New credible national polling · Major coalition or eligibility news · Sustained move beyond 0.40-0.50
執行約束
價格 44¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $304,241。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/18 03:03:45
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
44¢24h 成交量 ?
$145,082流動性 ?
$304,241未平倉量 ?
$6,818,007價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
39.7%動量 ?
-2.2%波動率 ?
0.2%趨勢斜率 ?
-0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
43¢ 2,585.05
42¢ 28,029.81
41¢ 92,018.32
40¢ 119,208.21
39¢ 3,855
賣盤
44¢ 7,178.98
45¢ 10,523.95
46¢ 46,274.87
47¢ 32,118.67
48¢ 10,065.83
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/18 02:41:11 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:43:14 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:45:15 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:47:11 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:49:24 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:51:14 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:53:14 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:55:11 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:57:16 43.5¢
2026/9/18 02:59:16 43.5¢
2026/9/18 03:01:15 43.5¢
2026/9/18 03:02:21 43.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +1% 2026/9/17 18:02:51
Yes appears modestly underpriced relative to recent trading levels and orderbook support, but the edge is small and political uncertainty is high.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 12:03:21
Price action and orderbook pressure conflict, while the long-dated election outcome remains highly uncertain.
Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/17 06:03:08
The estimated probability is slightly above the market midpoint, but the edge is small and evidence is mixed. Revisit after major polling, coalition, or candidate-eligibility developments.
Yes → +1% 2026/9/17 00:03:57
No clear divergence from fair value is detectable: orderbook support conflicts with the recent downward trend, and available data provides limited fundamental information.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · No 2026/9/18 02:06:16
$42,000 56¢
賣出 · Yes 2026/9/18 00:11:30
$10,020 44¢
買入 · No 2026/9/17 21:29:10
$5,508 46.01¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/17 21:16:42
$6,536 45¢