2026/9/17 18:02:51 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
44¢
The Yes price is below its recent weekly mean, while strong bid depth indicates persistent demand. However, the long time to election and limited recent movement create substantial uncertainty; the estimated probability is only modestly above the market price.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 New national polling · Major candidate eligibility news · Yes price near 0.46
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+1% 置信度
47%
The Yes price is below its recent weekly mean, while strong bid depth indicates persistent demand. However, the long time to election and limited recent movement create substantial uncertainty; the estimated probability is only modestly above the market price.
2026/9/17 12:03:21 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
45¢
The market prices Lula at approximately 45%, and the available data provide no reliable independent probability estimate. Strong bid depth supports near-term demand, but the recent weekly decline offsets that signal, leaving no clear edge.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 New high-quality Brazilian polling · Major candidate or coalition change · Sustained move outside 0.40-0.50
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
34%
The market prices Lula at approximately 45%, and the available data provide no reliable independent probability estimate. Strong bid depth supports near-term demand, but the recent weekly decline offsets that signal, leaving no clear edge.
2026/9/17 06:03:08 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
44¢
Yes appears modestly underpriced at roughly 44.5% implied probability. Heavy bid depth provides near-term support, but the recent one-week decline and long election horizon create substantial uncertainty.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Material polling shift · Candidate eligibility news · Price moves above 0.50 or below 0.40
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+2% 置信度
40%
Yes appears modestly underpriced at roughly 44.5% implied probability. Heavy bid depth provides near-term support, but the recent one-week decline and long election horizon create substantial uncertainty.
2026/9/17 00:03:57 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
44¢
The market implies roughly a 44–45% probability for Yes. Recent weekly weakness is offset by strong bid-side depth, while the long time to expiry and absence of fresh information make any probability adjustment highly uncertain.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 New credible Brazilian polling · Major candidate or coalition change · Sustained break below 0.40 or above 0.50
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
+1% 置信度
32%
The market implies roughly a 44–45% probability for Yes. Recent weekly weakness is offset by strong bid-side depth, while the long time to expiry and absence of fresh information make any probability adjustment highly uncertain.
2026/9/16 18:02:58 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
45¢
The market prices Yes near 44.5%, and the available data provides no robust basis for a different election probability. Recent weekly weakness is offset by substantial bid depth, while the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 New high-quality national polling · Confirmed candidate or coalition changes · Sustained break below 0.40 or above 0.50
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
62%
The market prices Yes near 44.5%, and the available data provides no robust basis for a different election probability. Recent weekly weakness is offset by substantial bid depth, while the long time to expiry leaves substantial uncertainty.
