Yes → 0% 2026/10/1 00:01:43
The Yes contract is near 61.2%; strong recent momentum is not an independent fair-value signal, and balanced depth offers little confirmation.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
暫無方向
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
觀察
模型偏差 Yes → 0%
置信度 58%
模型運行時價格 61.15¢ 模型運行: 2026/10/1 00:01:43
即時最佳賣價 62.4¢ 即時更新: 2026/10/1 01:49:45
保守凱利參考 — 暫不計算 · 目前模型版本至少需要 30 個已結算樣本、Brier 分數 ≤ 0.25，且低於市場機率基準
模型 OpenAI
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
觀察觸發點
- New credible national polling
- Material nomination or campaign news
- Sustained repricing with stronger order-book imbalance
為何暫不行動
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
重新評估條件
New credible national polling · Material nomination or campaign news · Sustained repricing with stronger order-book imbalance
執行約束
價格 62.4¢ · 價差 0.1 pts · 流動性 $378,530。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/10/1 01:49:45
使用 6h 區間的價格動量與波動率，結合目前盤口深度、價差及流動性；不是 AI 機率預測，可能與模型觀點不同。
價格與盤口規則
觀察最佳賣價 ?
62.4¢24h 成交量 ?
$195,169流動性 ?
$378,530未平倉量 ?
$7,555,979價差 ?
0.2¢深度不平衡 ?
-22.5%動量 ?
3.8%波動率 ?
0.1%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 目前未觸發方向性規則
規則說明
- 價格動量與盤口深度未同時達到方向性閾值。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
62.3¢ 736
62.2¢ 1,050.93
62.1¢ 6,055.38
61.7¢ 771.27
61.6¢ 2,106.02
賣盤
62.5¢ 5,625.07
62.6¢ 125
62.7¢ 112
62.8¢ 75
62.9¢ 11,001
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/10/1 01:24:16 61.75¢
2026/10/1 01:26:30 62.05¢
2026/10/1 01:28:15 62.05¢
2026/10/1 01:30:12 62.05¢
2026/10/1 01:32:10 62.05¢
2026/10/1 01:34:15 62.05¢
2026/10/1 01:36:16 62.05¢
2026/10/1 01:38:15 62.05¢
2026/10/1 01:40:26 62.15¢
2026/10/1 01:42:11 62.2¢
2026/10/1 01:44:15 62.35¢
2026/10/1 01:45:16 62.35¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes ↑ +2% 2026/9/30 12:02:03
The primary outcome appears slightly below fair value given recent upward momentum and bid-side depth, but the estimate is low-confidence without polling or political news.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/30 00:01:57
There is no clear divergence from the 58.35% market probability: orderbook support and recent price movement are mixed, while candidate-specific evidence is absent.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/23 06:01:49
Market structure shows balanced information: short-term momentum softened, but six-hour and weekly trends remain positive and liquidity is substantial.
Yes → 0% 2026/9/23 00:02:08
Conflicting time horizons and orderbook support do not establish a clear divergence from fair value.
相關鯨魚流向
全部成交買入 · Yes 2026/9/30 21:21:39
$17,000 60.4¢
賣出 · No 2026/9/30 20:03:36
$6,941 39.88¢
買入 · No 2026/9/30 15:33:41
$6,799 39.27¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/30 14:54:39
$6,000 60.2¢
買入 · Yes 2026/9/30 14:54:26
$5,000 60.2¢