2026/10/1 00:01:43 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
61.15¢
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 New credible national polling · Material nomination or campaign news · Sustained repricing with stronger order-book imbalance
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
58%
Recent gains indicate improving sentiment, but price action and balanced order-book depth do not establish whether 61.15% is mispriced; without polling or candidate evidence, no defensible edge is detected.
2026/9/30 12:02:03 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
短線 當前價
59.85¢
The 59.85% market price is supported by recent gains and a strong bid-side depth imbalance, suggesting a small near-term positive edge. This is mainly flow-based; absent polling or candidate-news data leaves substantial uncertainty.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Revisit if bid-side depth imbalance materially narrows. · Revisit if the price falls below 0.58. · Reassess on material polling or candidate news.
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+2% 置信度
45%
The 59.85% market price is supported by recent gains and a strong bid-side depth imbalance, suggesting a small near-term positive edge. This is mainly flow-based; absent polling or candidate-news data leaves substantial uncertainty.
2026/9/30 00:01:57 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
到期前 當前價
58.35¢
At 58.35%, the market price is not contradicted by the available evidence. Yes-side bid depth is stronger, but the recent six-hour decline and one-day gain point in different directions; no independent election fundamentals are provided.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Reassess if credible polling materially shifts the race. · Reassess if sustained price action breaks the recent range.
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
38%
At 58.35%, the market price is not contradicted by the available evidence. Yes-side bid depth is stronger, but the recent six-hour decline and one-day gain point in different directions; no independent election fundamentals are provided.
2026/9/23 06:01:49 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
58.95¢
The Yes price is 0.5895, supported by strong bid-side depth, while recent one-day weakness offsets the broader one-week gain. With no independent polling or candidate-specific evidence, the estimated probability is close to market pricing.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 New high-quality election polling · Sustained break below 0.55 · Sustained break above 0.62
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
57%
The Yes price is 0.5895, supported by strong bid-side depth, while recent one-day weakness offsets the broader one-week gain. With no independent polling or candidate-specific evidence, the estimated probability is close to market pricing.
2026/9/23 00:02:08 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
58.55¢
Yes is priced near 58.55%, with strong liquidity and a narrow spread. Recent daily momentum is bearish, but the one-week trend remains positive and bid depth exceeds ask depth, leaving no reliable mispricing estimate.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 A sustained break below recent lows · Fresh credible polling data · A sharp shift in orderbook imbalance
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
62%
Yes is priced near 58.55%, with strong liquidity and a narrow spread. Recent daily momentum is bearish, but the one-week trend remains positive and bid depth exceeds ask depth, leaving no reliable mispricing estimate.
