Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/17 18:01:00
Yes appears slightly above estimated fair value, but the edge is modest because geopolitical shocks and strong bid-side liquidity can reprice the market abruptly.
研究邊界
這是市場情報，不是投資建議。交易前請自行核對規則、流動性、價格和風險。
模型方向
模型傾向：看低
觀望：價格接近合理值執行狀態
待確認
模型偏差 Yes ↓ -2%
置信度 56%
模型運行時價格 17¢ 模型運行: 2026/9/17 18:01:00
即時最佳賣價 17¢ 即時更新: 2026/9/17 19:51:40
模型 OpenAI
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
觀察觸發點
- Major military escalation or de-escalation
- Sustained break above 0.20 or below 0.14
- Material change in bid-side liquidity
為何仍需確認
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
重新評估條件
Major military escalation or de-escalation · Sustained break above 0.20 or below 0.14 · Material change in bid-side liquidity
執行約束
價格 17¢ · 價差 1 pts · 流動性 $765,000。模型觀點僅供研究，請結合即時盤口獨立核實。
概要
更新時間 2026/9/17 19:51:40
模型觀點
觀察最佳賣價 ?
17¢24h 成交量 ?
$175,443流動性 ?
$765,000未平倉量 ?
$7,260,115價差 ?
1¢深度不平衡 ?
60.8%動量 ?
0.0%波動率 ?
0.0%趨勢斜率 ?
0原因
- 暫無明顯優勢
規則說明
- 沒有明顯的買/賣優勢。
訂單簿
Outcome Yes
買盤
16¢ 196,324.34
15¢ 161,229.9
14¢ 960,084.24
13¢ 52,309.45
12¢ 133,577.73
賣盤
17¢ 76,879.13
18¢ 198,837.67
19¢ 69,024.45
20¢ 15,696.78
21¢ 6,546.71
價格歷史
區間: 6h
2026/9/17 19:30:13 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:32:12 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:34:12 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:36:24 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:38:12 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:40:24 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:42:13 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:44:13 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:46:12 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:48:12 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:50:12 16.5¢
2026/9/17 19:51:13 16.5¢
預測歷史
完整歷史Yes → 0% 2026/9/17 12:01:47
No clear divergence is visible between the market price and the estimated probability.
Yes ↓ -1% 2026/9/17 06:01:29
Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value, but the edge is small and geopolitical developments can rapidly change probabilities.
Yes ↓ -1% 2026/9/17 00:02:11
Yes appears modestly above estimated fair value, but the edge is small and event-driven uncertainty is high.
Yes ↓ -2% 2026/9/16 18:01:07
The Yes outcome appears slightly above fair value, but the long horizon, balanced recent price action, and substantial liquidity reduce confidence.
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