8/3/2026, 18:00:16 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度
到期前 當前價
21¢
The market looks fairly priced around 21% with weak momentum and no clear event-driven catalyst. Orderbook and history do not show a strong mispricing enough to justify a trade.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Flat short-term price action · High liquidity and tight spread · No clear escalation signal
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-1% 置信度
66%
Price at 0.21 implies a low but nontrivial invasion chance; historical drift is flat to slightly down and no fresh catalyst is evident. Deep liquidity supports efficient pricing, so only a small negative edge for Yes.
8/3/2026, 12:00:35 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度
中線 當前價
21¢
The Yes side looks a bit rich versus the current balance of supply/demand and the lack of upward momentum.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Yes best ask only 0.21 · No side has much deeper depth · 1w Yes trend is down
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-3% 置信度
68%
Price already embeds a low-probability invasion; recent drift is flat and orderbook favors No heavily, suggesting Yes is slightly overpriced.
8/3/2026, 06:00:18 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度
到期前 當前價
21¢
The market appears fairly priced around a low-probability tail event; orderbook support is decent but not enough to justify a clear edge after considering the long-dated geopolitical hurdle.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Best bid/ask tightly centered near 0.20/0.21 · Yes side has strong bid depth · Recent 1d drift upward is modest
Yes 看漲 ↑ 預測偏差
+1% 置信度
56%
Price is anchored near 0.21, but the event requires a major U.S. military offensive to establish control over Iranian territory, which remains a low-probability escalation despite some recent upward drift and strong bid support.
8/3/2026, 00:00:16 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度
中線 當前價
21¢
The market already prices a low invasion probability and the bid/ask is tight, leaving only a small negative edge on Yes. Better to wait for a larger dislocation or new geopolitical catalyst.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Yes near 0.21 fair · No depth dominates · 24h price down 5c
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-2% 置信度
70%
Current Yes price is 0.21, but the U.S. invading Iran by 2026 still looks unlikely absent a major escalation. Strong No-side orderbook depth and the recent 24h drift down support a slightly lower fair value.
8/2/2026, 18:00:15 gpt-5.4-mini
買賣點 觀望 時間尺度
中線 當前價
20¢
Slightly overpriced Yes relative to a low-probability, distant-event base rate; current tape has weakened over 24h and orderbook favors No liquidity.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 24h price down 5c · Yes bid/ask capped at 20/21 · No side has deeper liquidity
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-6% 置信度
63%
Market implies ~20%; the long-run risk is real, but current price looks a bit rich given no immediate catalyst, recent 1d drift down, and very heavy liquidity around the No side.
