2026/9/17 18:01:00 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
17¢
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Major military escalation or de-escalation · Sustained break above 0.20 or below 0.14 · Material change in bid-side liquidity
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-2% 置信度
56%
The market implies roughly a 16–17% probability, while the long-run base rate and lack of recent price momentum suggest a modestly lower probability. Heavy bid depth limits conviction, and major geopolitical escalation could quickly invalidate this view.
2026/9/17 12:01:47 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
16¢
The Yes price near 0.16 appears broadly consistent with a low-probability geopolitical event. Strong bid depth supports the contract, but recent movement is mixed and the data provides no reliable catalyst for a material repricing.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Credible military escalation · Material diplomatic agreement · Sustained move outside 0.145–0.175
Yes 中性 → 預測偏差
0% 置信度
58%
The Yes price near 0.16 appears broadly consistent with a low-probability geopolitical event. Strong bid depth supports the contract, but recent movement is mixed and the data provides no reliable catalyst for a material repricing.
2026/9/17 06:01:29 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
到期前 當前價
16¢
The market implies a 16% probability, while the long-horizon base rate and the demanding resolution criterion suggest a slightly lower estimate near 14.5%. Recent upward movement and strong bid depth limit conviction; reassess after major U.S.-Iran escalation or de-escalation.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Credible evidence of imminent U.S. military action · A formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement · Yes price moves materially above 20%
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-1% 置信度
45%
The market implies a 16% probability, while the long-horizon base rate and the demanding resolution criterion suggest a slightly lower estimate near 14.5%. Recent upward movement and strong bid depth limit conviction; reassess after major U.S.-Iran escalation or de-escalation.
2026/9/17 00:02:11 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
中線 當前價
17¢
The Yes price is 0.17, while the base-rate and long-horizon nature of a U.S. invasion before 2027 support a modestly lower probability near 0.155. The recent weekly rise and strong bid depth add uncertainty; reassess on credible military or diplomatic developments.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Credible evidence of U.S. military preparations · Direct U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough · Sustained Yes price above 0.20 or below 0.14
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-1% 置信度
58%
The Yes price is 0.17, while the base-rate and long-horizon nature of a U.S. invasion before 2027 support a modestly lower probability near 0.155. The recent weekly rise and strong bid depth add uncertainty; reassess on credible military or diplomatic developments.
2026/9/16 18:01:07 OpenAI
模型觀點 觀察 時間尺度
到期前 當前價
16¢
The implied probability near 16% appears modestly above a base-rate-adjusted estimate for a U.S. invasion intended to establish control before 2027. Recent weekly momentum is upward and bid depth is strong, so the edge is limited and should be revisited after major military or diplomatic developments.
說明
edge/置信度不足，规则判定观望
觸發點 Confirmed U.S. offensive action toward territorial control · Major U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement · Regional conflict escalation involving U.S. forces
Yes 看跌 ↓ 預測偏差
-2% 置信度
58%
The implied probability near 16% appears modestly above a base-rate-adjusted estimate for a U.S. invasion intended to establish control before 2027. Recent weekly momentum is upward and bid depth is strong, so the edge is limited and should be revisited after major military or diplomatic developments.
